College Football Week 8 Expert Picks center on two matchups with very different stakes: Michigan at Indiana and Utah vs Houston in Salt Lake City. The first asks whether Indiana can regroup after its first loss in more than a year and a half. The second carries Big 12 title and CFP implications, with the winner gaining an edge in the race to the conference championship game in Dallas.
Michigan at Indiana: Hoosiers Face Their First Setback
Indiana lost at home with national attention on the game. Mistakes and turnovers contributed, and the final play ended with a receiver failing to get a foot inbounds. It was an unusual manner of defeat for a Curt Cignetti team, and the question now is how Indiana handles its first loss in over a year and a half.
The running game has been a problem. Indiana running backs averaged just 2.8 yards per attempt against Ohio State and 2.4 yards per attempt against Nebraska. That lack of production has made the offense more one-dimensional than expected, and the Hoosiers are now facing a third straight physical defense.
Josh Hoover is Indiana’s quarterback, not Fernando Mendoza. Hoover cannot correct issues the way Mendoza could, which puts more pressure on the surrounding cast. Michigan’s pass rush is considered good, and the Wolverines may be able to pressure Hoover into mistakes.
Michigan’s defense ranks first in yards per play, but the Wolverines have not faced an offense like Indiana’s. The Hoosiers are projected to score in the low 20s. Indiana’s defense ranks ninth in points per drive and has few weaknesses, though it may allow some rushing success, and its pass rush may be less effective than last season.
The bigger concern for Michigan is its own offense. Bryce Underwood struggled at quarterback, and the Wolverines benched him for true freshman Tommy Carr last week. Michigan scored 21 second-half points with Carr, but he threw only seven passes for 47 yards. Carr now must face Indiana’s defense after the Hoosiers had a week to prepare. Michigan may need 17 points to cover, and the author expects Michigan to score in the high teens and get 17 points. Wagering on Michigan is scary, but the author believes Michigan is the right side for multiple reasons.
Utah vs Houston: Big 12 and CFP Stakes
Utah vs Houston is an awesome Big 12 matchup with real consequences. The winner gains an advantage in the Big 12 title race and moves closer to the Big 12 championship game in Dallas. With CFP implications attached, the Saturday night game in Salt Lake City figures to carry extra weight.
Utah’s defense ranks 26th in yards per play, but the author is unsure how good it is this season. Kansas is the best offense Utah has faced, ranked 63rd, and the Jayhawks scored 24 points and passed for 333 yards against the Utes. Colorado scored 24 points against Utah, its season high against an FBS opponent. Utah ranks 66th in pressure rate and 112th in sacks, meaning it cannot rush the passer consistently.
Houston’s offense is well-prepared. The Cougars gained 458 yards against Texas Tech on the road and scored 35 points against Oklahoma State. Houston’s offensive line ranks fifth in rushing success rate and top-25 in pressure rate. The Houston offense ranks first nationally on third down.
Houston’s defense is not its strong suit. It ranks 99th in yards per play and 124th in allowing plays of 20+ yards. It is also poor in the red zone, which could spell trouble against a Utah offense that uses unique formations and multiple quarterbacks. Utah ranks seventh in points per drive, is strong on third down, and does not allow many quarterback hits.
A high-scoring game is expected in Salt Lake City. The combination of Houston’s third-down offense and Utah’s points-per-drive efficiency points to a track meet, especially with Houston’s defensive weaknesses against explosive plays and in the red zone.
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