This week’s NFL Week 7 picks lean on a simple idea: trust the trends that have already shown up on the field, and treat uncertain quarterback situations with caution. From a returning signal-caller in Chicago to a kicker who has not missed, the board offers several angles worth a closer look.
Bears vs. Steelers: Williams back, but how mobile?
Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury in Week 6, but his rushing output was minimal — three yards on the ground. The author expects Williams to be cautious running, which limits his upside in a game where Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 at a neutral venue. The Steelers often win more than they lose, yet the lean here is toward the underdog against that spread.
Texans vs. Giants: Stroud rolling, McCarthy starting
CJ Stroud is playing at the elite level he showed as a 2023 rookie, and Houston is expected to force turnovers against a New York team now starting JJ McCarthy. The author expects the Texans to win going away, making them a comfortable pick in this matchup.
Vikings kicking prop: Reichard perfect so far
Will Reichard is 15-for-15 on field goals through five games. With Minnesota’s offense capable of stalling in scoring range, the author likes Reichard to make more field goals in Week 7.
49ers vs. Falcons: Injuries and a short week
San Francisco is depleted at wide receiver, with Mike Evans the most recent addition to the injury list. The 49ers also played Monday night, leaving them on a short week before traveling to Atlanta. The author likes the home team to pull a mini-upset in this one.
Panthers receiver prop: McMillan's volume stands out
Tetairoa McMillan averages 94 receiving yards per game, yet his prop is set at 69.5 yards. That gap between production and line is hard to ignore, and the author likes McMillan to go over 69.5 receiving yards.
Dolphins: Battle-tested against undefeated teams
Miami has already played all three undefeated NFL teams, a schedule that should have hardened the Dolphins. The author likes Miami to keep it close in Week 7.
Ravens vs. Bengals: Jackson uncertainty
Lamar Jackson’s availability is uncertain for Baltimore, and that clouds the Ravens’ outlook. The author picks Cincinnati to beat a possibly short-handed Baltimore team.
Browns vs. Titans: Road favorite vs. home dog
Cleveland is 4-2 despite Deshaun Watson’s play, while Tennessee got its first win in Week 6. The Browns are a road favorite against the Titans, but the author leans toward Tennessee as the home underdog.
Broncos kicking prop: Lutz in ideal conditions
Denver last played Thursday night and now faces the Arizona defense. Will Lutz is expected to make field goals, and the kicking conditions in Arizona are described as ideal. The author likes Lutz to convert his chances.
Lions total: Over 53.5 keeps cashing
The Lions game total is set at 53.5, and all five Detroit games this season have gone over that number. Two reached the 60s, and one reached the 70s. The author sticks with the over.
Raiders tight end prop: Bowers over 71.5
Brock Bowers has exceeded 71.5 receiving yards in all but one game, and in that exception he still reached 70 yards. The author likes Bowers over 71.5 receiving yards.
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: Unbeaten but untested?
Kansas City is undefeated, but the Chiefs have played a weak schedule. They face the defending champions on Sunday night, a team that has lost two straight. Seattle has been rested since last Thursday. The author likes the Chiefs to lose their first game.
Eagles: Desperate in primetime
Philadelphia’s season has been described as off the rails, but the Eagles play a rivalry game in primetime at home. The author likes Philadelphia to keep it close.
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