World Series betting has rarely offered a matchup this far removed from the chalk. The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers are meeting in the Fall Classic, and neither club was anywhere near the top of the futures board when the regular season began on March 25.
DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Rays at +8000 on Opening Day. The Brewers opened at +3500. Few bettors held Opening Day tickets on either team, according to Johnny Avello, DraftKings director of sportsbook operations.
That lack of early interest fits a market that had spent two straight seasons watching the World Series favorite win. The Los Angeles Dodgers, two-time defending champions, and the New York Yankees attracted most of the World Series betting action. The Rays and Brewers were long shots relative to those bigger-market clubs.
How the Long Shots Got Here
Milwaukee posted the best regular-season record in MLB at 103-59 and then swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Brewers also beat the San Diego Padres 3-2 in the NLDS opener and took NLCS Game 1 from Los Angeles 2-1.
Tampa Bay finished 98-64, the best mark in the American League. The Rays swept the Yankees in the ALDS and eliminated Cleveland in six games in the ALCS.
Avello said the matchup gives long-shot backers something to root for after two straight favorite wins. He also noted that the best teams reached the World Series and that both were strong at home and good on the road.
The Rays, he said, were not expected to do this well and did not attract big-market action. Bettors had many chances to take Tampa Bay at longer prices.
Series and Game 1 Prices
By Thursday afternoon, just over 24 hours before first pitch, the market had shifted firmly toward Milwaukee. The Brewers are -165 series favorites; the Rays are +145 underdogs.
Game 1, scheduled for Friday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX, carries nearly identical pricing: Brewers -166, Rays +137. Tampa Bay is the road team for Games 1 and 2.
Avello said series and Game 1 prices are nearly identical because Milwaukee starts its No. 1 pitcher. That pitcher is Jacob Misiorowski, the 24-year-old right-hander who went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA during the regular season.
Misiorowski did not earn wins in either of his two postseason starts, but the Brewers won both games. His presence atop the rotation helps explain why Game 1 betting mirrors series betting.
Where the Money Is Going
Bettors like Milwaukee and are laying the price with the Brewers, Avello said. The club saw steady action in the last three weeks of the regular season, and customers continued to play Milwaukee once the playoffs started.
The same pattern holds for Game 1. Avello said Game 1 betting mirrors series betting, with customers backing the Brewers at the shorter price.
At the start of the playoffs, the Rays were +800 and the Brewers +550. Both have shortened considerably from their Opening Day numbers, though Tampa Bay remains the underdog in the series market.
MVP Market Draws Attention to Yelich
Jackson Chourio is the +600 favorite for World Series MVP. William Contreras is the second choice at +650, followed by Tampa Bay third baseman Junior Caminero at +750 and Misiorowski at +800.
Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP and Milwaukee’s designated hitter in the World Series, is listed at 25/1. Avello said customers are betting Yelich on both tickets and money.
A $100 bet on Yelich at 25/1 would profit $2,500 if he wins MVP. That combination of a recognizable name and a long price has made him a popular pick in a market otherwise dominated by younger stars.
The series opens Friday with Milwaukee favored to win both the opener and the championship. Tampa Bay, a team that opened at +8000, will try to extend a run that few bettors saw coming.
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