This week’s underdog picks column lands on two spotlights: Ole Miss over Texas in college football and the Atlanta Falcons over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL. Both selections hinge on quarterback play and health, not simply on the point spread.
Texas vs. Ole Miss: A Quarterback Mismatch
Texas is fighting for its playoff life after losing a second consecutive home game last week. The Longhorns led Florida 17-3 at one point but could not finish, and the defeat raised uncomfortable questions about a team that was a large favorite against the Gators.
The stakes against Ole Miss on Saturday are clear. No 12-team College Football Playoff at-large team has ever had three regular-season losses, so another defeat would leave Texas with little margin for error. The pressure extends to quarterback Arch Manning, whose draft discussion has shifted from a potential No. 1 overall projection to job security. The column argues that Manning’s struggles do not look like a fluke.
Ole Miss offers a contrast at the position. Trinidad Chambliss is viewed as a far superior quarterback in this matchup, and the Rebels’ defense is coming off its strongest effort of the season. Last week, Ole Miss held a Missouri offense known for explosiveness to just three points in a dominant win. That combination of quarterback advantage and defensive form makes the Rebels the pick to upset Texas.
Falcons vs. 49ers: Injuries and a Short Week
The San Francisco 49ers were unbeaten before this predicted game, but their situation has changed. They played Monday Night Football and now face a short week before traveling to Atlanta. The Falcons, meanwhile, are desperate for a win.
San Francisco is decimated at wide receiver. Mike Evans is injured, and Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson, De’Zhaun Stribling, Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall are all hurt and unavailable. That leaves the 49ers severely shorthanded on offense. A banged-up team losing on the road is not shocking, and the column expects San Francisco to lose for the first time in 2026.
The Falcons pick is labeled a mini-upset, but the reasoning is straightforward: Atlanta needs a win, and San Francisco’s injury report and travel schedule create an opening. The author picks the Falcons to defeat the 49ers.
The Week's Underdog Card
Both selections carry a common thread: trust the healthier or more stable quarterback situation and fade teams with recent setbacks. Ole Miss has Chambliss and a defense that just shut down Missouri. The Falcons face a 49ers team missing nearly its entire wide receiver room on a short week.
The author’s predicted upsets are Ole Miss over Texas and Atlanta over San Francisco. The column expects the 49ers to lose for the first time in 2026, while Texas faces a potential third regular-season loss that would severely damage its playoff hopes.
[…] Weekly Underdog Picks: Ole Miss Over Texas, Falcons Over 49ers […]