Saturday’s SEC meeting between Texas and Missouri carries more than conference positioning: with both teams at 6-2, a third loss would severely dent either side’s College Football Playoff case. A Texas vs. Missouri prediction from the SportsLine Projection Model points to points being scored when the Longhorns visit Faurot Field in Columbia, Mo., at noon ET.
The model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, ran this matchup and recommends the over on a total of 42.5. Its simulations produced an average of 47 combined points, and the over came out ahead in 62% of the runs.
Odds and injury
Texas opened as a 3-point favorite and now sits at -2.5 on the spread. The money line lists the Longhorns at -135 and Missouri at +117, with the total at 42.5.
The Longhorns will be without running back Hollywood Smothers and offensive tackle Trevor Goosby, both ruled out. Edge rusher Colin Simmons and receiver Cam Coleman are questionable. On the positive side for Texas, leading rusher Raleek Brown is expected to play, and leading receiver Ryan Wingo is listed as probable.
Why the total is the focus
The over case rests on contrasting defensive profiles and two offenses capable of exploiting them. Texas has allowed only 17.1 points per game, yet the defense faces a balanced Missouri attack. Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons has thrown for 1,952 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, and running back Jamal Roberts has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards.
For Texas, Arch Manning has raised his level during the current two-game win streak over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. He has passed for 1,727 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Recent form also supports the over. Missouri has conceded at least 31 points in each of its three defeats. Texas, meanwhile, has given up 27 points in three of its last four games. Those trends align with the model’s 47-point projection, which sits comfortably above the 42.5 line.
What the spread model adds
Beyond the total, the model indicates one side of the spread covers in well over 60% of simulations. The specific spread selection is reserved for SportsLine, which also reports a recent 80-77 record on its top-rated college football picks.
The game is available to stream on Fubo.
