Saturday’s Big Ten matchup between No. 12 Ohio State and No. 23 Oregon carries an unusual wrinkle for a game with this much at stake: neither team will have its starting quarterback. The Ohio State vs. Oregon pick therefore hinges less on the marquee names and more on which backup can keep his offense moving at Ohio Stadium.
What Happened Last Week
Ohio State (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) had won five straight before an unranked USC team handed the Buckeyes a 30-18 loss on Saturday. Oregon (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) arrives in Columbus on a different note, having knocked off then-No. 20 Northwestern 34-26 in Week 9.
The injury report explains the quarterback turnover. Julian Sayin is out for Ohio State with an arm injury, while Dante Moore remains sidelined for Oregon under concussion protocol. Ohio State also lists wide receiver Brandon Inniss as doubtful.
Backup Quarterbacks Deliver
Both replacements performed well enough in Week 9 to suggest the offenses will not shrink. Oregon’s Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State turned to true freshman Luke Fahey, who passed for 260 yards with one touchdown and no turnovers in a hostile road environment at USC.
The SportsLine Projection Model expects those two to combine for more than 500 passing yards on Saturday. That projection underpins the model’s lean toward the total rather than either side.
Odds and Betting Lines
Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite, and the over/under sits at 44.5 points. The money line has the Buckeyes at -294 and the Ducks at +245. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Why the Model Likes the Over
After simulating the game 10,000 times, the model recommends Over 44.5 points. The reasoning rests on several trends:
- Each of the last four meetings between these programs surpassed 60 combined points.
- The total has been eclipsed in all four of Ohio State’s home games in 2026.
- Oregon has seen the over hit in two of its three road games.
- The over is 5-1 in Oregon’s last six games as an underdog.
The model projects the over to hit in 56% of simulations. It also identifies one side of the spread as a play that covers in more than 60% of simulations, though that selection is available only through SportsLine.
What to Watch
The central question is whether two backup quarterbacks can sustain the scoring pace this series has produced. Raiola’s arm and Fahey’s composure at USC offer encouraging evidence, but Ohio State’s home scoring trends and Oregon’s underdog history are doing much of the work in the model’s projection. With the spread sitting at 7.5 and the total at 44.5, the game offers two clear angles for bettors to weigh before kickoff.
