A day before Brazil’s runoff election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva filled Copacabana beach with a crowd that Rio City Hall estimated at 1.1 million people. The Lula Copacabana rally stretched along the 2.5-mile shoreline on Saturday under a fierce sun, with supporters dressed overwhelmingly in red and many attendees visibly young.
The scale of the gathering suggested a campaign that had regained momentum after a first round it narrowly lost. On 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right rival, took 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent. Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in Sunday’s runoff, and recent polls show the two candidates tied.
A campaign seeking a fourth term
Lula, 80, is asking voters for a fourth non-consecutive term. First elected in 2002, he has spent five decades in political life and is now trying to do something no first-round loser has managed since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s: win the presidency.
At Copacabana, activists unfurled a yellow-and-green banner reading “WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND.” Supporters carried homemade signs. One, held by Erika Cavalcante, read: “Don’t let the mobsters win.”
Later in the day, Lula attended another rally on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. The brief did not specify the size of that crowd.
Bolsonaro's camp responds
Flávio Bolsonaro’s supporters gathered in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, at Praça da Liberdade. Minas Gerais holds Brazil’s second-largest electorate, and no candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. In the first round, Bolsonaro led there by just under 5 percent.
The Belo Horizonte rally featured AI-generated funk carioca music, according to the brief. Supporters waved Brazilian and US flags, along with Israeli flags, and many wore Brazil’s yellow football jerseys. Marcos Antonio, 56, held a merged Brazil-US flag and said the United States is a great nation to align with. He added that he does not want an alliance with Cuba or Venezuela. The brief notes that Trump invaded Venezuela in January 2026.
Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., 59, said Lula did nothing for the country. He credited Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, with giving Brazilians the right to self-defense. Jair Bolsonaro relaxed gun laws during his 2019-2022 presidency; Lula has since tightened regulations.
Democracy and the shadow of the coup plot
Many Lula supporters framed Sunday’s vote as a defense of democracy itself. Marta Moraes, 59, said the election is against Bolsonarismo, not against the right. She said she lost four family members to Covid neglect.
Cammy Marinho, 49, said she aims to prevent the extinction of democracy and spent a fortnight persuading Bolsonaro voters. Isabella Gaze, 64, described Lula’s Army as a fight for Brazilian democracy, adding that the Bolsonaros represent rotten politics. That WhatsApp group, created after the first round, now counts 10 million members.
Heitor Lopes da Silva, 14, attended in a wheelchair. He said he has believed all his life that Lula is a good president and that Bolsonaro represents destruction and death.
Josias Silva, 61, said people have woken up. He said young people fear a dictatorship if Lula does not win, called the rally the biggest protest in Brazil’s history, and predicted Lula would win with more than 60 percent.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. Many Brazilian democrats fear he could be released if his son wins. Press reports suggest Bolsonaro plotters may receive top jobs in a Flávio Bolsonaro administration. The brief also notes that Bolsonaro has documented ties to Rio militia groups, and that security experts say relaxed gun laws diverted firearms to gangs.
Piauí magazine reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The party included sex workers and vaccine lobbyists, according to the report.
On Sunday, nearly 159 million Brazilians will decide whether to hand Lula another term or elevate the son of the man he defeated in 2022. Polls show a tie. The size of the Copacabana crowd is one measure of enthusiasm; the vote is another.
