With several favorites falling in Week 8, Week 9 NFL survivor pool picks require extra caution. Losses by Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets thinned the field, though Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance. Only 15 games are on the slate with two teams on bye.
Patriots vs. Packers: A Trap Game
The New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. Both teams are 5-3, and the Patriots are 3-point favorites with a -164 money line. Yet the SportsLine Projection Model is not confident in New England, projecting a win by just one point. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has a strong track record, making its hesitation notable.
New England has been living on the edge. In Week 8, the Patriots trailed the 1-6 Miami Dolphins 13-3 at halftime before rallying for a 24-19 win. Quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions in eight starts. However, the team will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness).
Green Bay, meanwhile, is 2-2 on the road. Jordan Love has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions, despite the Packers leading the league in dropped passes. Christian Watson (42 catches, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four scores) are his top targets. The model sees this as a close game, making New England a risky survivor play.
Safer Alternatives for Week 9
With the Seahawks’ spread shrinking from -12.5 to -8.5 due to Sam Darnold’s quad injury and Gardner Minshew replacing Jacoby Brissett for Arizona, many have already used Seattle. That leaves other favorites to consider.
- Houston Texans (-6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers are on a 10-game losing streak, making Houston an appealing option.
- San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders: The 49ers are coming off a bye and have an 8-1 outright record in their last nine post-bye contests.
These teams offer more stability than the Patriots, especially given the model’s lukewarm projection for New England.
Model's Hidden Gem
The SportsLine model is confidently backing a team that many have not used in survivor pools, winning outright in nearly 80% of simulations. That team is not revealed here, but the model’s history suggests it could be a valuable pick. The model is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
For survivor pool participants, the key takeaway is to avoid the Patriots this week. The close projected margin and injuries make them a risky choice. Instead, look to the Texans or 49ers as safer alternatives, or trust the model’s hidden gem for a potential edge.
