A computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has assembled a five-leg Week 9 NFL parlay that would pay out at nearly 30-1 if all five selections come through. The model’s top-rated picks have produced more than $5,000 in winnings for $100 bettors since the system began, and it entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on those top plays dating to 2024.
The Over in Arizona at Seattle
The most detailed selection released is the Over 39.5 in Sunday’s Cardinals-Seahawks matchup in Seattle, a bet the model expects to cash in 76% of its simulations. Recent history supports the number: the Over has connected in six of Arizona’s past 10 games and in three of Seattle’s last five.
Seattle brings the league’s 11th-ranked scoring offense at 24.0 points per game, while Arizona sits 21st at 21.9. The Cardinals’ outlook at quarterback has shifted, with Gardner Minshew now drawing the start and Jacoby Brissett headed to Baltimore in a trade. Sam Darnold (quad) will not play for the Seahawks, but Drew Lock steps in with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (64 catches, 985 yards, nine touchdowns) as his primary target, and Lock led Seattle to 31 points in his previous start this season.
Arizona’s offense has its own reliable pieces. Running back Tyler Allgeier has 72 carries for 323 yards and two touchdowns, including an 11-carry, 147-yard, one-score effort in the Week 8 overtime win at Dallas. Tight end Trey McBride leads the team with 66 receptions for 544 yards and five touchdowns.
Four More Selections With Wide Margins
The remaining four legs of the parlay come from matchups the model identifies as having lines that are significantly off. Those picks include multiple spread selections that have hit well above 50% of the time. The specific teams and lines are available only through the model’s full Week 9 release.
The broader Week 9 slate includes several games with playoff implications. Minnesota, the NFL’s last unbeaten team, is a 3-point home underdog against AFC East-leading Buffalo on Monday night. The 6-1 49ers host the Raiders as 10-point favorites. Elsewhere, the Rams face the Commanders (+4.5), the Texans meet the Chargers (+5.5), and the Bears are 6-point favorites over the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers have dropped 10 straight games dating to last season.
How the Model Works
The system runs 10,000 simulations of every game on the schedule to identify where its projected outcomes diverge from the betting lines. Its top-rated picks have been tracked since the model’s inception, and the current 60-51 stretch covers selections made since 2024. A successful five-leg parlay at the odds described would turn a modest stake into a return of nearly 30 times the amount wagered.
