The Week 10 college football best bets arrive at a moment when the first College Football Playoff rankings have sharpened every result, and one seasoned Las Vegas handicapper has a specific view on a Big Ten game with postseason stakes. Thomas Casale, whose picks have gone 14-8 over the past seven weeks, is backing Ohio State to cover a 7.5-point spread against Oregon on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, a game carried on CBS and Paramount+.
Why the Buckeyes are the pick
Ohio State is coming off a road loss at USC, a result that leaves the Buckeyes with little margin for error. Casale pointed to the circumstances of that defeat as a reason to expect a different performance this week. True freshman quarterback Luke Fahey made his first career start in that game and completed 21 of 38 passes for 260 yards with a touchdown, and Casale characterized the situation as a difficult spot for Ohio State. USC won outright as a 6.5-point underdog.
Now the Buckeyes return home, where Casale expects a more settled offense and a defense that responds after allowing 30 points to the Trojans. He also expects Jeremiah Smith to be more involved with Fahey having one start behind him. On the other side, Oregon backup quarterback Dylan Raiola is coming off his best game of the season, but Casale noted that Raiola struggled under pressure earlier in the year against UCLA. The Ducks are 5-3 after a win over a ranked Northwestern team, a record that Casale described as short of expectations.
A loaded Week 10 slate with CFP implications
The weekend features several matchups that will directly shape the playoff . Top-ranked Miami faces a major test at No. 11 Notre Dame, with the Irish favored by 7 points and Miami star receiver Malachi Toney ruled out due to an ankle injury.
Two games pair top-10 teams from the initial CFP rankings. No. 10 Ole Miss meets No. 2 Georgia, with the Bulldogs listed as 3.5-point favorites, while No. 3 Utah is a 4.5-point favorite against No. 9 BYU.
Other lines with playoff relevance include No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU, where LSU is favored by 6; No. 6 Kentucky at No. 13 Tennessee, with the Volunteers also favored by 6; No. 7 Texas as a 2.5-point favorite at No. 18 Missouri; and No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State, where the Buckeyes are favored by 7.5.
What else Casale is watching
Casale has identified two additional picks beyond the Ohio State game, including one favorite he expects to roll against an opponent he believes may be nearing the end of its competitive window this season. Those selections are available through his full analysis.
For bettors building a parlay around Casale’s Week 10 selections, the potential return is around +600. His recent run includes sweeping all three best bets in both Week 4 and Week 5.
