Wales vs Japan at Principality Stadium on Saturday opens a four-Test November that could shape the trajectory of Steve Tandy’s side. The match is the first of three home fixtures in the inaugural Nations Championship, with New Zealand and Australia to follow in Cardiff.
A month that matters
Welsh rugby’s autumn schedule has arrived with little fanfare, but the stakes are clear. Wales have won one and lost two of their opening three Nations Championship matches, and the 12-team tournament resumes with a fourth round before a finals weekend at Twickenham determines final standings.
Tandy’s team sits 10th in the world rankings. Their three Test victories under him have come against Fiji, Italy and Japan, and the coach has acknowledged that while progress has been made, the pace of improvement must increase.
Captain Dewi Lake said the squad is in the best condition he can remember before a campaign, a view that will be tested immediately against familiar opposition.
Japan again
Eddie Jones brings Japan to Cardiff for the fourth meeting between the sides in 16 months. Wales have won two of the previous three, including a last-gasp victory in Cardiff a year ago that gave Tandy his first Test win.
The visitors are dealing with absences at fly-half and number eight, but they arrive with a physically imposing forward pack. A home defeat would leave Wales facing a failed autumn after just one weekend.
Tandy has named a record 12 England-based players in his 23, with nine in the starting XV. Nicky Smith, Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright and Lake have all spoken about how their games have developed since moving to English clubs.
Max Llewellyn and Eddie James form Wales’ sixth centre partnership in 13 internationals, a statistic that underlines the selection churn Tandy must manage across four back-to-back Test matches.
Crowd and cash
Attention will also fall on the Principality Stadium stands. Last autumn’s opener against Argentina drew 50,185, the lowest non-Covid attendance for a Wales home game since 2016, and February’s Six Nations defeat by France attracted 57,744.
The comparable fixtures a year ago against Japan and New Zealand drew 61,324 and 68,388 respectively. Attendance matters financially: the Welsh Rugby Union relies on men’s international matches for more than half its turnover and announced an £18m loss last month.
Players have promoted ticket links on social media, and Lake said the squad understands its responsibility to excite supporters and bring them back.
Governance in the background
Filling the ground is not solely a team issue. The WRU faces low public confidence over how the game is governed, and its professional structure remains unresolved.
The board intends to cut to one professional side by 2028 and has awarded licences to Cardiff and Dragons, leaving Ospreys and Scarlets to compete for a west Wales licence with a decision expected by summer 2027. New chair Lyndon Faulkner has suggested he will examine everything, including retaining four professional sides.
The WRU has also sought two sides in an Anglo-Welsh tournament, the same number it initially wanted when announcing its reduction policy. Supporters face uncertainty over whether their team will continue to exist.
An annual general meeting follows the Australia match, and a rugby summit has been proposed for December. Before any clarity arrives, Wales have four games to win, starting with Japan.
