Texas Turns Blue for the first time in a generation, as James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa shattered decades of Republican dominance in the state’s top races. Talarico defeated Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat, becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott in the governor’s race, making her the first Democratic governor since Ann Richards, who left office in 1991.
A wave built on dissatisfaction
The results, called by NBC and CNN with about 85 percent of votes counted, showed Talarico leading by roughly 12 points and Hinojosa ahead by seven. Their victories came amid widespread voter frustration with President Donald Trump, whose poll numbers have sunk to some of the lowest of his career. As CNN commentator Alyssa Farah Griffin noted early in the evening, the conditions for a Democratic flip in Texas had rarely been more favorable.
Both candidates also proved difficult to caricature. Talarico, an outspoken Christian with a telegenic presence, withstood an estimated $221 million in negative GOP ads that sought to label him a progressive radical. Hinojosa ran on a populist platform centered on lowering household costs, increasing teacher pay, and reducing corporate influence in state government.
Opponents plagued by weakness
Paxton entered the race burdened by corruption and adultery accusations and ran a low-energy campaign. Earlier this year, he won a primary runoff against longtime Senator John Cornyn after Trump endorsed him over the objections of GOP establishment figures—a decision that may have cost Republicans a seat they could have held with Cornyn on the ballot. Abbott, after nearly 12 years in office, inspired little warmth even among conservatives, and his practice of governing with a dismissive style finally caught up with him.
Republican outside groups poured $316 million into the Senate race to bolster Paxton, while the White House reportedly micromanaged his campaign from afar. Abbott’s campaign outspent Hinojosa’s nearly eight-to-one—$281 million to $36.8 million, according to The Texas Tribune. Elon Musk, who moved to Texas in 2020, contributed $158 million to a GOP Senate super PAC supporting Paxton and another $5 million to Abbott’s campaign.
Culture wars fall flat
Despite affordability being the top concern for voters nationwide, Republican attack ads leaned heavily on cultural issues. In Austin and across the state, local news viewers were bombarded with Senate commercials—one suggesting Talarico would help make children transgender, another claiming Paxton would “protect” them. The ads felt recycled from the 2024 playbook. Mailers falsely claimed Hinojosa would introduce a state income tax to fund a “socialist agenda.” After Talarico took a highly publicized 12-day break from in-person campaigning due to the flu, Paxton’s team sent a mailer depicting him on a milk carton with the words “MISSING: Where’s James Talarico been? With the defund-the-police radicals in Austin.”
But the cultural attacks failed to resonate in a state where voters were more focused on their wallets. Trump’s tariff policy and the ongoing Iran War drove up the cost of living nationwide, and his apparent indifference to Americans’ economic pain became a liability. At an October 24 rally, Trump said he did not “give a damn” about high gas prices because the oil and gas industry is “making a fortune.” The remark landed badly in Texas, where high diesel prices had already prompted Abbott to declare a statewide disaster in September.
A historic shift
For decades, Democrats struggled in Texas not only because of conservative leanings but because many voters were content with the status quo: no state income tax, tough-on-crime policies, pro-business regulation, and limited government intrusion. Since 1990, the state’s population has grown 87 percent—by 15 million residents, including 8.6 million Hispanics—fueling Democratic hopes of a flip. This year, however, enough voters crossed ideological lines to punish a president and a party they felt had grown indifferent to working people’s struggles. As Talarico told supporters late Tuesday night, drawing on the biblical story of David and Goliath, “You were my slingshot.”
