Saturday night’s rivalry game in Ann Arbor sets Michigan as a 13.5-point favorite over Michigan State, and our Michigan vs. Michigan State pick leans on the Wolverines’ defense to justify that number. The total sits at 39.5, with the over at -108 and the under at -112. The money line reads Michigan -550 and Michigan State +410. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 7.
Why the spread makes sense
Michigan’s scoring average alone might not sell a two-touchdown edge, but the defensive profile does. The Wolverines surrender just 16.4 points per game and 250 total yards per contest. Opponents average only 99.4 rushing yards against them, a figure that lines up poorly for a Michigan State offense generating 110.1 yards per game on the ground.
The Spartans have dropped six straight after a 2-0 start. Over their past two games they have scored a combined 31 points. In their most recent outing, a 28-10 loss at UCLA, they managed 156 total yards and converted two of 11 third downs. UCLA also held Michigan State to 47 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. Michigan State had a bye last week.
Michigan’s offense found a spark
Michigan enters at 5-3 and has won two of its past three. The Wolverines’ 28-21 victory at Rutgers was uncharacteristically productive through the air. Freshman quarterback Tommy Carr completed 22 of 27 passes for 266 yards and ran for two touchdowns. He also connected with JJ Buchanan on a six-yard scoring play. Michigan totaled 427 yards and converted 12 of 16 third downs, though two missed field goals allowed Rutgers to stay close.
For the season, Michigan averages 316.4 yards per game. The Rutgers performance suggests the offense may be trending upward at the right time. Savion Hiter carried 20 times for 76 yards in that game, and Jordan Marshall scored his fifth rushing touchdown of the season. Michigan State’s defense allows 153.8 rushing yards per game, which could give the Wolverines a reliable complement to Carr’s improved passing.
Quarterback questions for the Spartans
Michigan State has used freshmen at quarterback. Kayd Coffman started against UCLA, and Leo Hannan appeared in relief. The results were limited: 156 total yards and only two third-down conversions. Facing a Michigan defense that has been stingy all season, the Spartans’ offense will need to find answers it has not shown during the six-game losing streak.
The pick
Michigan -13.5. The Wolverines need to win by at least 14 points. Their defense is the strongest argument: allowing 16.4 points per game and under 100 rushing yards per contest gives Michigan State little room for error. SportsLine projects a 31-15 Michigan win, a 16-point margin that would cover the spread. Given the Spartans’ recent scoring struggles and Michigan’s defensive consistency, laying the points is the play.
