This weekend’s Premier League fixtures have an unusual challenger in the prediction arena: the game engine behind Football Manager 27 predictions. The latest edition of Sports Interactive’s management simulation, due for release on 10 November, has simulated the round’s matches, and its results are being compared with those of pundit Chris Sutton and an AI model in BBC Sport’s prediction league.
Miles Jacobson, studio director at Sports Interactive, also took part, offering his own forecasts alongside the FM27 engine and the AI. The contest uses a straightforward scoring system: a correct result — win, draw or defeat — earns 10 points, while an exact scoreline is worth 40.
A Game That Reflects Real Life
FM27 introduces several new features, but one in particular has drawn attention. The game now allows players to customise their manager’s appearance in greater detail, including the option to represent wheelchair-using managers for the first time.
Jacobson said the addition was a source of pride for the studio. He described watching social media videos from the game’s free trial last weekend, in which disabled players expressed how much it meant to see themselves represented. While such options may seem minor to those who have long been included in games, Jacobson said the impact on those previously left out is considerable.
Another new system, called Tactical Effectiveness, aims to mirror the adjustment period that follows a managerial change in real football. When a new manager arrives with a complex tactical approach, players need time to absorb it. The game forces users to choose between investing training time in a demanding system or starting with simpler foundations. Jacobson connected this mechanic to recent comments by Nottingham Forest boss Oliver Glasner, who said after a defeat by Brentford that he had been lenient with his players but now needed them to follow his instructions. Jacobson suggested Glasner would likely be concentrating on tactical effectiveness training during the week.
Premier League Forecasts: Where They Agree and Differ
The predictions cover the weekend’s top-flight schedule, and while there is consensus in some matches, others reveal sharp divisions.
- Coventry vs Everton: Sutton and FM27 both expect a 2-0 Everton win, while Jacobson opts for 2-1. The AI also backs Everton by 2-0. Jacobson cited Everton’s defensive strength and Coventry’s difficulty in breaking down organised sides.
- Leeds vs Tottenham: Sutton sees a 1-1 draw, FM27 goes for a 2-1 Tottenham win, Jacobson also predicts 1-1, and the AI forecasts a 2-1 Spurs victory. Sutton noted Tottenham’s strong record against Leeds but doubted they would extend their winning run to four games.
- Arsenal vs Hull: Sutton and the AI both favour Arsenal, at 2-0 and 3-0 respectively, while FM27 has it 1-0 and Jacobson plumps for 2-1. Jacobson praised Hull’s fearless style and suggested Arsenal’s reduced width due to Bukayo Saka’s injury could make the contest tighter than expected.
- Fulham vs Newcastle: Sutton predicts a 2-1 Fulham win, FM27 a 1-1 draw, Jacobson a 0-0 stalemate, and the AI a 1-1 draw. Sutton argued Newcastle’s recent poor run has increased pressure on manager Matthias Jaissle.
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: Sutton and the AI both back City 2-1, while FM27 foresees a 0-0 draw and Jacobson a 3-0 City win. Sutton highlighted Forest’s scoring troubles but anticipated a reaction to Oliver Glasner’s criticism.
- Brighton vs Brentford: Sutton and the AI both predict a 2-1 Brighton victory, FM27 a 1-0 Brentford win, and Jacobson a 2-2 draw. Sutton was impressed by Brighton’s organisation and their win at Manchester City last week.
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: Sutton, Jacobson and the AI all expect a Liverpool win, at 2-0, 2-0 and 3-1 respectively, while FM27 forecasts a 1-0 Liverpool victory. Sutton noted Palace’s struggles and the absence of the suspended Jean-Philippe Mateta.
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth: Sutton and the AI predict a 1-1 draw, FM27 a 2-1 Bournemouth win, and Jacobson a 2-0 Bournemouth victory. Sutton felt Ipswich’s spirit could earn them a point.
- Sunderland vs Chelsea: Sutton and Jacobson both back Chelsea 2-1, FM27 a 1-1 draw, and the AI a 2-1 Chelsea win. Sutton questioned the pressure on Sunderland boss Regis le Bris and pointed to their defensive and scoring difficulties.
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Sutton and Jacobson both predict a 3-1 and 2-1 Villa win respectively, FM27 a 2-1 United victory, and the AI a 2-2 draw. Sutton remained unconvinced by United’s consistency despite their midweek comeback against Roma.
How the Contest Stands
In the previous round, Sutton scored 100 points from four correct results, including two exact scores, beating guest John Hannah. The AI’s four-week winning streak ended with 80 points, and BBC readers claimed the weekly win with 110 points. The only fixture in which everyone correctly picked the outcome was Chelsea’s 2-0 victory over Manchester United.
With FM27’s engine offering its own set of forecasts, this weekend adds another layer of intrigue to the prediction league. Whether the simulation can outperform Sutton and the AI will be settled by the actual results.
