First Solar investor attention has climbed recently, making the largest U.S. solar company one of the most-viewed stocks on Zacks.com. That visibility comes after a month in which shares returned +9.5%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite fell -5.4%. The Zacks Solar industry gained 9% over the same period, so First Solar modestly outpaced its industry group even as the broad market declined.
The central question for investors is whether that momentum can continue. Media reports and rumors can move a stock quickly, but fundamental factors—especially earnings estimate revisions—tend to drive longer-term buy-and-hold decisions. For First Solar, the estimate is mixed, and that is reflected in its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Earnings Estimates Send Mixed Signals
For the current quarter, First Solar is expected to earn $5.21 per share, which would represent a +7.6% change from the year-ago quarter. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved -8.1% lower over the last 30 days. For the current fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $17.66 per share, implying +24.3% year-over-year growth, though that figure has dipped -0.1% over the past month. The next fiscal year’s consensus estimate stands at $24.53, a +38.9% change from the current year’s expected result, and it has edged +0.6% higher over the last 30 days.
Those revisions, combined with three other factors related to earnings estimates, produce the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The rank is designed to be a more conclusive indicator of near-term price performance than a single estimate change, though the recent downward revision in the current-quarter consensus is a notable signal.
Revenue Outlook Points to a Rebound
Earnings growth is only as strong as the revenue behind it. For the current quarter, the consensus sales estimate is $1.47 billion, a -12.9% year-over-year change. For the current fiscal year, the estimate is $4.74 billion, down -9.2%, while the next fiscal year’s estimate of $6 billion implies +26.6% growth. The pattern suggests near-term revenue pressure followed by a projected rebound.
In the last reported quarter, First Solar generated $1.23 billion in revenue, a -22.8% year-over-year decline. Earnings per share came in at $5.3, compared with $4.24 a year earlier. Revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 billion by -6.24%, while EPS surprised positively by +14.22%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times but topped revenue estimates only once.
Valuation Offers a Discount Signal
Valuation matters when assessing whether a stock’s current price reflects its intrinsic value and growth prospects. First Solar carries a Zacks Value Style Score of B, which indicates that it is trading at a discount to its peers. That score evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics, grouping stocks from A to F. A B grade suggests the shares may be reasonably or attractively priced relative to comparable companies, even after the recent run-up.
For investors weighing the market buzz around First Solar, the combination of a Hold rating, mixed estimate revisions, a projected revenue rebound, and a discount valuation presents a nuanced . The Zacks Rank #3 implies the stock may perform in line with the broader market in the near term rather than significantly outperform or underperform it.