Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 9, and the Bears vs. Buccaneers odds make Chicago a clear favorite at home. Prediction markets assign Chicago a 72% chance to win, while Tampa Bay sits at 28%.
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Why Chicago Is Favored
The Bears’ defense appears to have taken a step forward since acquiring Jeffery Simmons. In his Chicago debut, the defensive lineman helped spark a dominant performance against the Seahawks. With the offense also playing well, the Bears are positioned to start quickly at Soldier Field.
That combination is reflected in the market price. A Chicago win trades at 72%, well above the Tampa Bay side.
Can Tampa Bay Pull the Upset?
Tampa Bay brings a defense allowing 285.9 yards per game, the third-lowest rate in the league. Any Buccaneers win in Chicago would likely require a strong outing from Todd Bowles’ defense and a much better day from Mayfield, who did not complete a pass in the previous week’s game, played in torrential rain.
The SportsLine Projection Model gives Tampa Bay a 33% chance to win, while the market price is lower at 28%.
Margin and Total Markets
Beyond the moneyline, the market asks whether Chicago can win by more than 6.5 points. The “Yes” side trades at 48%, with “No” at 52%. The SportsLine model projects a 6-point margin on average and has the Bears exceeding that spread in 52% of its simulations. The opposite trade covers a Tampa Bay win or a loss by fewer than 6.5 points.
The total is set at 47.5 points, with both the over and under priced at 50%. With two strong defenses, the outcome may depend on how well the Chicago offense can outpace Tampa Bay’s. The Bears are an excellent rushing team, but the Buccaneers rank as the league’s best against the run, putting the emphasis on Williams to move the ball through the air.
Model Context
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. It entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
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