Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds have the No. 13 Volunteers as 6.5-point home favorites over the No. 6 Wildcats for Saturday’s SEC showdown at Neyland Stadium, with kickoff set for 6:15 p.m. ET. The total is 50.5 points, and the money line sits at Kentucky +195 and Tennessee -238 at DraftKings.
Kentucky (7-1, 5-1) owns the highest ranking in program history after opening at No. 6 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. The Wildcats have reeled off six straight wins since a 45-17 loss to Alabama in Week 2, including victories over ranked Texas A&M and LSU. They are coming off a 34-27 win over Vanderbilt and had a bye last week.
Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) saw its CFP hopes dented by a 27-24 loss at South Carolina last week. The Volunteers had five sacks of Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers and controlled the ball for long stretches but could not hold off a late rally. A fumble by quarterback George MacIntyre with 33 seconds left set up South Carolina’s winning field goal.
When Kentucky Has the Ball
Quarterback Kenny Minchey has protected the ball well, completing 69% of his passes for 1,755 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one interception. He has also run for two scores. The Wildcats lean heavily on a three-headed backfield of CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson and Jovantae Barnes. All three average more than 5 yards per carry. Baxter leads the group with 487 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, Patterson has 443 yards and three scores, and Barnes has 224 yards and a touchdown on 43 carries. Baxter and Patterson each have broken runs of more than 70 yards.
Kentucky averages 386.4 yards per game, ninth in the SEC, and 32 points per game. The Wildcats are plus-13 in turnover margin, fourth-best in the nation, and have forced 18 takeaways, tied for fourth in FBS.
When Tennessee Has the Ball
The Volunteers’ offense runs through DeSean Bishop, who ranks sixth nationally with 957 rushing yards. Bishop has topped 100 yards in four consecutive games, including a 220-yard outburst against Auburn, and has scored 11 touchdowns. Backup Daune Morris has 349 yards and two scores, and both backs average more than 5.5 yards per carry. Tennessee averages 213 rushing yards per game, second in the SEC behind South Carolina.
The quarterback situation remains unsettled. MacIntyre has started the past four games in place of Faizon Brandon but has thrown two touchdown passes and five interceptions over that span. Brandon has accounted for 10 touchdowns with one interception but has been sacked 15 times and is dealing with a shoulder injury. MacIntyre completes 67% of his passes compared to Brandon’s 60%, but both could see time, making the running game and defense even more critical.
Tennessee leads the nation with 35 sacks, led by Tyree Weathersby’s seven, which ties him for ninth nationally. Xavier Gilliam has six sacks and Mariyon Dye has five. The Volunteers rank fourth in the SEC in total defense (288.4 yards per game) and third in scoring defense (16.3 points per game).
Betting Angles
Kentucky has covered the spread in every game except the Alabama loss. The Wildcats’ games have gone over the total in five of eight, including two of three on the road. Tennessee has seen six of eight games go under, with all five home games staying below the number. The Volunteers are 4-4 against the spread and 3-2 at home.
Tennessee has won 12 of the past 14 meetings, including a 56-34 victory last October in Lexington. One of those wins was vacated.
Best Bet: Under 50.5
Both defenses should dictate the pace. The Wildcats and Volunteers rely on their running games, which keeps the clock moving, and neither quarterback is likely to pile up big numbers through the air. Kentucky held Oklahoma, which ranks fifth in the SEC in total defense, to 17 points in a 21-17 win. Tennessee has played several low-scoring games at home, and its defense should be energized after last week’s loss.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, projects a 27-19 Tennessee victory. It gives Under 50.5 a ‘B’ grade and notes the pick hits 59.8% of the time. SportsLine expert Eric Cohen also backs the under, predicting a 20-14 Volunteers win, noting that an uncertain quarterback situation does not favor Josh Heupel’s team in a shootout.
