The WTA Finals in Indian Wells will be staged without the reigning champion after Elena Rybakina withdrew on the eve of the tournament, saying her body was not physically ready to compete. The season-ending championship is being held at the California desert venue for the first time, and four players return from last year’s edition while three make their debuts.
Rybakina’s absence removes the world No 1 and defending titleholder from the draw, leaving Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff as the headline names. The eight qualifiers have been split into two round-robin groups.
The two groups
Gauff, seeded fourth, heads Group 1 alongside fifth seed Jessica Pegula, eighth seed Linda Noskova and tenth seed Marta Kostyuk. Group 2 is led by second seed Sabalenka and contains third seed Mirra Andreeva, sixth seed Elina Svitolina and seventh seed Karolina Muchova.
The event runs from 8-15 November, with cooler desert evenings expected to alter how the ball travels through the court — a factor several experts flagged when weighing up the field.
Bartoli and Robson make their picks
Marion Bartoli and Laura Robson both named Sabalenka as their winner. Bartoli pointed to her hard-court record this year: 34 wins from 40 matches, an 85 per cent success rate that is the best among the eight qualifiers.
Her strongest argument was Sabalenka’s March run, when she won 12 matches in a row to complete the Sunshine Double. That stretch included beating Rybakina in the Indian Wells final, defeating her again in straight sets in the Miami semi-final and then overcoming Gauff for the Miami title. Bartoli also noted the Brisbane title and finals at both hard-court Grand Slams as evidence of consistency on the surface.
Bartoli raised two questions specific to this week. Sabalenka has played only three matches since the US Open final, leaving roughly three and a half weeks between her last outing and the start of the Finals — which Bartoli expects to mean fresh legs but also a need to find competitive rhythm quickly. She said she would watch how deep Sabalenka returns and how balanced she is when attacking the first groundstroke. In a round-robin format an early loss can be absorbed, but the opening opponent is still one of the best players in the world.
Andreeva draws dark-horse backing
Bartoli chose Andreeva as her dark horse, noting that the world No 3 is already a Grand Slam champion and will not be overlooked in the locker room. She cited Andreeva’s run to the Indian Wells title last year, when she beat Rybakina, Svitolina, Iga Swiatek and then Sabalenka, coming from a set down in the final.
Bartoli said that week required Andreeva to solve very different problems in succession — handling Rybakina’s ability to take time away, matching Svitolina’s insistence on making her earn every point, and absorbing the weight of shot from Swiatek and Sabalenka — all at 17.
This year Andreeva has won Adelaide outdoors on hard courts, Linz indoors on hard courts and her first Grand Slam at Roland-Garros, and she reached the final in Beijing. Bartoli highlighted her ability to absorb a heavy ball and change direction before an opponent recovers, pointing in particular to the backhand down the line after taking a crosscourt ball, which forces Sabalenka to hit on the move.
If Andreeva can deny easy angles on the first groundstroke, Bartoli argued, she has a far better chance of extending rallies, and she can vary ball height when stretched to buy recovery time. The cooler evening conditions could give her a fraction more time to defend, provided she finds depth on the next shot. Bartoli identified her first WTA Finals test as protecting her own second serve and being brave enough to attack opponents’ second serves, while stepping forward when a short ball arrives — something she has already shown against both favourites at Indian Wells.
Other expert views
Martina Navratilova’s dark horse was Pegula, reasoning that with no Grand Slam title this year, this could be the big one for her. Madison Keys picked Andreeva, saying the desert conditions complement her strengths and help explain her success there, including the 2025 title run. Robson’s dark horse was Svitolina.
