A national championship rematch tops Friday’s college basketball schedule, and the SportsLine Projection Model has identified its Michigan vs UConn pick: the Wolverines covering as 7.5-point underdogs when the teams meet at TD Garden in Boston at 8 p.m. ET.
Why the Model Likes Michigan
Michigan beat UConn 69-63 in last season’s title game but lost its top three scorers. The Wolverines kept their fourth and fifth leading scorers and put together one of the nation’s strongest offseasons, landing the No. 3 class of 2026 when freshmen and transfers are combined, according to 247Sports.
Tennessee transfer J.P. Estrella scored 15 points in Michigan’s 84-68 season-opening win over Oakland. UConn, meanwhile, has seen its two leading scorers from last season move to the NBA. The model projects Michigan to cover in 51% of its simulations.
Saint Louis Getting Points Against Missouri
SportsLine expert Bob Konarski noted that Robbie Avila will be available for the Billikens. Missouri holds a size advantage as the second-tallest team in the country and brings more offensive firepower than last season, Konarski said. Saint Louis returns most of its roster and, in his view, has superior continuity and chemistry along with guard play capable of exploiting the Tigers’ size through cuts and ball distribution. The pick is Saint Louis at +2.5.
Oklahoma State a Heavy Favorite Over Queens
Queens is playing its third game in five days, a difficult spot, according to SportsLine expert Thomas Casale. The Royals scored 199 combined points in winning their first two games, but they allowed 193 to Winthrop and Loyola Marymount. Casale sees Queens stepping up in class against an Oklahoma State team with a star-studded recruiting class and a highly rated transfer haul.
He called the Cowboys his Big 12 sleeper and expects them to reach 100 points. Last season, Queens lost six games to Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Auburn and Purdue by an average of 31 points. Casale backs Oklahoma State to roll at home while laying 18.5 points.
Parlay Potential
Combining the three picks—Michigan +7.5, Saint Louis +2.5 and Oklahoma State -18.5—into a parlay would pay +601, meaning a $100 risk would return $601.
Model Background
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2026-27 season on an 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under picks dating back to 2025 and a 28-22 run on top-rated side picks.
Odds are subject to change.
