Week 9 NFL best bets arrive with the season at its midpoint, and this card leans on a wide receiver thriving in Madrid, a rookie running back carving out a larger role, and a couple of defenses poised to dictate terms. The column sits at 21-19 after a 3-2 Week 8, with the process feeling steadier than the record suggests.
Broncos -2.5 at Panthers (-120)
Carolina’s 6-2 opponent is not the issue here; the Panthers’ own collapse is. Back-to-back losses of 43-13 and 27-19 have exposed an offense that has lost its fast start. The offensive line has been hit hard by injuries, leaving replacements who are not holding up. The schematic wrinkles added in the offseason have been solved by opponents, and Bryce Young is operating with almost no margin for error.
Denver brings a disruptive pass rush and a rookie running back, Jonah Coleman, who has looked like a genuine find. Bo Nix is not playing at a high level, but he is at least testing defenses downfield. Coleman scoring against a weak Carolina run defense is a reasonable secondary bet.
Drake Maye 1+ interceptions (-110)
Maye’s first four weeks produced four touchdowns and seven interceptions. The next four weeks flipped to 11 touchdowns and one pick as the schedule softened. Pro Football Focus credits him with just one turnover-worthy throw since Week 5. That clean stretch faces a Green Bay defense that leads the league with 15 forced turnovers and ranks second with 10 interceptions. Jonathan Gannon’s pressure packages and disguised coverages should produce at least one Maye mistake.
Sione Vaki 20+ rushing yards (-110)
Detroit drafted Vaki in the fourth round in 2024 as a running back/linebacker out of Utah. He barely played in his first two years, and the trade-up looked like another mid-round miss. Then Sunday against a strong Minnesota defense, Vaki ran for 65 yards on 11 carries, nearly doubling his previous career high. Jahmyr Gibbs is on pace for 463 touches, an unsustainable workload. If the Lions build an early lead over Miami, Vaki should see plenty of work. The Dolphins allowed 38 yards on seven carries to Patriots backup Corey Kiner last week. Miami has been decent against the run overall, but 20+ yards is a modest ask in a favorable game script.
Texans at Chargers UNDER 42.5 (-121)
Los Angeles has not scored a touchdown in two straight games and has topped 20 points only once this season. Houston’s defense has underachieved but remains talented, and a bye week should help it regroup. The Chargers’ defense has actually played well, ranking seventh in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. It defends the middle of the field, where C.J. Stroud prefers to attack. Houston struggles to run the ball and to convert in the red zone. That combination points to a low-scoring game.
Drake London 6+ receptions AND 80+ receiving yards (+112)
The Madrid game should be fun, and Atlanta has the firepower and the matchup to keep pace with Cincinnati. The Bengals’ defense is competent down to down but gives up explosive plays, which favors yardage totals. Bijan Robinson will draw attention after a quiet stretch, but London is the better bet.
Cincinnati has been unable to defend the middle of the field. On passes between the numbers, the Bengals have allowed 1,196 passing yards, second-most in the NFL, and 9.4 yards per attempt, third-highest. That is exactly where London thrives. From Weeks 3-7, excluding the two Cooper Rush starts and last week’s torrential rain against Tampa Bay, London ranked seventh in the NFL in yards on throws between the numbers. Michael Penix is playing, and no heavy rain is projected. Atlanta will need to throw to keep up, so volume should be there.
Week 9 picks
Jaguars beat Ravens; Bengals beat Falcons; Saints beat Browns; Cowboys beat Colts; Broncos beat Panthers; Lions beat Dolphins; Rams beat Commanders; Giants beat Eagles; Chiefs beat Jets; Texans beat Chargers; Seahawks beat Cardinals; Patriots beat Packers; 49ers beat Raiders; Bears beat Buccaneers; Bills beat Vikings.
Season record: 77-44. Last week: 9-5.
