With the November international break looming, Lewis Jones – Jones Knows – has identified several angles for the latest round of Premier League betting tips, including a value play against Manchester City and a player-prop trend that keeps delivering.
Friday night goals expected at Everton
Everton host Coventry on Friday evening, and the recent history of Friday Night Football points to an open contest. Across the last 17 such fixtures, matches have produced an average of 3.76 goals, with 12 of those 17 going over 2.5. Jones likes the 10/11 available with Sky Bet for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, and he predicts a 2-2 draw.
Cards on the menu at Elland Road
Leeds against Tottenham kicks off at 12.30pm on Saturday, a slot that has seen plenty of disciplinary action. The last 17 Premier League games in that time window have averaged 4.8 cards, and six of the most recent seven cleared the 4.5 line. Referee John Brooks has been one of the busiest officials since the start of last season, showing more red cards and awarding more penalties than any other referee, while only Stuart Attwell has a higher cards-per-90 average. Brooks is averaging 4.75 cards per game, making over 4.5 total cards at 5/6 with Sky Bet Jones’ best bet for this match. He predicts a 2-1 Leeds win.
Hull's bookings appeal at Arsenal
Arsenal are priced at 1/7 to beat Hull, so Jones looks elsewhere for value. Hull have averaged exactly three cards per away game in all competitions since Sergej Jakirovic took charge, and their Premier League average is 2.8. With Hull likely to be without the ball for long spells at the Emirates, the 8/5 for them to receive over 2.5 cards appeals. Score prediction: 2-0 Arsenal.
Bassey's foul trend continues
Calvin Bassey has recorded three or more foul involvements in each of his last five matches, and Jones sees no reason to abandon that angle at 5/6 with Sky Bet. The Fulham centre-back is playing with more adventure, completing more passes, covering more ground and showing greater aggression in one-on-one defending. Until the price shortens, Jones is happy to stay with the trend. Fulham vs Newcastle score prediction: 2-1.
Forest a live underdog against City
Manchester City face Nottingham Forest on Saturday evening in the final gameweek before the international break, a scenario that has historically produced surprises. City are playing their ninth match in a month, and the market may be underestimating the effects of fatigue. Jones notes that blindly backing every odds-on favourite in this particular pre-break gameweek over the last five seasons would have lost 3.4 units. Forest are due a change in fortune, with expected points suggesting they should have nine more than they do. At 7/2 with Sky Bet, Jones backs Forest to win and predicts a 2-1 scoreline.
Brentford's scoring run makes them dangerous at Brighton
Brighton beat Manchester City at the Etihad, but the last five teams outside Arsenal and Liverpool to win there have all failed to win their next match. Brentford are the only side to have scored in every Premier League game this season, finding the net 16 times, and they have scored in 11 consecutive league matches stretching back to last season. Jones is not convinced Brighton should be as short as they are, and he likes Brentford double chance and both teams to score at 6/4 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 1-1.
Mac Allister a value scorer at Palace
Crystal Palace have conceded 21 goals in nine Premier League games, the most they have shipped at this stage of a top-flight season. That makes Liverpool’s goalscorer market interesting, and Alexis Mac Allister stands out at 7/2 with Sky Bet. His league goal drought goes back to February 28 against West Ham, but he has scored four times in cup competitions this season and had 12 attempts across his last four matches. Jones predicts a 2-1 Liverpool win.
O'Shea could be carded by Evanilson's threat
Ipswich defender Dara O’Shea is 9/2 with Sky Bet to be booked, and Jones points to Bournemouth striker Evanilson as the reason. Evanilson has drawn 29 yellow cards from opponents in his Premier League career, a booking every 200 minutes. O’Shea is likely to have his hands full with Evanilson’s movement and physicality. Score prediction: 1-2 Bournemouth.
Sunderland worth a swing against Chelsea
Sunderland have conceded just 1.04 goals per game at home since promotion and have produced big performances against the elite at the Stadium of Light, beating Newcastle, holding Arsenal and Manchester City, and beating Chelsea 2-1 on the final day of last season. At 5/2 with Sky Bet, Jones is happy to back Sunderland to win, predicting a 2-1 scoreline.
Manzambi the man for Villa at Old Trafford
Johan Manzambi has delivered a goal or assist every 81 minutes in the Premier League this season, and that bet has landed in all six league games he has started. His partnership with Nicolas Jackson is developing nicely, and he averaged a goal involvement every other game for club and country last season. Manchester United have not kept a clean sheet in nine league games this season, and Jones likes Manzambi to score or assist at 13/8 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 1-2 Aston Villa.
Jones Knows' best bets
- Over 4.5 cards in Leeds vs Tottenham (5/6 with Sky Bet)
- Calvin Bassey 3+ foul involvements (5/6 with Sky Bet)
- Nottingham Forest to win (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- Johan Manzambi to score or assist (13/8 with Sky Bet)
