This weekend’s Premier League predictions from Lewis Jones, also known as Jones Knows, put Nottingham Forest at the centre of the betting , with the tipster arguing that Manchester City are vulnerable at the City Ground on Saturday evening.
Jones’s case against City is built on scheduling rather than form. He notes that this is the final gameweek before the November international break, a point in the calendar that has repeatedly produced surprising results. For City, the match will be their ninth in a month, following an international window in which several players were asked to feature four times in ten days.
The historical pattern he cites is stark. Blindly backing every odds-on favourite in this particular pre-break gameweek over the last five seasons would have lost 3.4 units. He points to City’s 2-1 home defeat to Brentford in 2022/23, Chelsea being held by Burnley in 2021/22, Ipswich beating Tottenham in 2024/25 and Sunderland drawing with Arsenal last season as examples of short-priced favourites coming unstuck.
Forest are available at 7/2 with Sky Bet. Jones also notes that the expected points table suggests Forest should have collected nine more points than they have, and he expects Oliver Glasner to get them winning. His score prediction is a 2-1 Forest victory, and he names the home win as one of his best bets.
Leeds vs Tottenham: cards in focus
Referee John Brooks is central to Jones’s thinking at Elland Road. Since the start of last season, no Premier League referee has awarded more penalties or shown more red cards, and only Stuart Attwell has averaged more bookings per 90 minutes. Brooks is handing out 4.75 cards per game.
The 12.30pm Saturday kick-off adds weight to the case. The last 17 Premier League matches to start at that time have averaged 4.8 cards per game, with six of the last seven clearing the 4.5 line. Jones takes over 4.5 total cards at 5/6 with Sky Bet as a best bet, predicting a 2-1 Leeds win.
Bassey's foul involvement trend
At Fulham, Jones is sticking with Calvin Bassey to record three or more foul involvements at 5/6 with Sky Bet. The defender is playing with more adventure from centre-back, completing more passes, covering more ground and showing greater aggression in one-on-one defending. The line has landed in each of his last five matches, and Jones sees no reason to abandon a winning angle until the price is adjusted. He predicts a 2-1 Fulham win over Newcastle.
Manzambi the pick at Old Trafford
For Manchester United against Aston Villa on Sunday, Jones focuses on Johan Manzambi. The Villa player has delivered a goal or assist every 81 minutes in the Premier League this season, and backing him to score or assist has landed in all six league games he has started, including substitute appearances. His partnership with Nicolas Jackson is developing, and he averaged a goal involvement every other game for club and country last season.
Jones notes that United are without a clean sheet in nine Premier League games this season and remain inconsistent. He takes Manzambi to score or assist at 13/8 with Sky Bet as a best bet and predicts a 2-1 Villa win.
Other selections across the weekend
Jones also identifies angles in several other fixtures. For Everton vs Coventry on Friday night, he points to the goals record of recent Friday Night Football, with the last 17 such fixtures averaging 3.76 goals per match and 12 of those 17 seeing over 2.5 goals. He backs over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 10/11 with Sky Bet and predicts a 2-2 draw.
At Arsenal, he expects Hull to be shown over 2.5 cards at 8/5 with Sky Bet, citing Hull’s average of exactly three cards per away game under Sergej Jakirovic and 2.8 per match in the Premier League. His score prediction is a 2-0 Arsenal win.
For Brighton vs Brentford, Jones highlights Brentford’s attacking consistency. They are the only side to have scored in all nine Premier League games this season, with 16 goals, and have scored in 11 consecutive league matches. He backs Brentford double chance and both teams to score at 6/4 with Sky Bet, predicting a 1-1 draw.
At Crystal Palace, he looks to Alexis Mac Allister to score anytime at 7/2 with Sky Bet. Palace have conceded 21 goals in nine league games this season, the most the club have shipped at this stage of a top-flight campaign. Mac Allister has had 12 attempts across his last four matches and has scored four times in cup competitions this season. Jones predicts a 2-1 Liverpool win.
For Ipswich vs Bournemouth, Jones backs Dara O’Shea to be booked at 9/2 with Sky Bet, pointing to Evanilson’s record of drawing 29 yellow cards from opponents in his Premier League career, a booking drawn every 200 minutes. He predicts a 2-1 Bournemouth win.
Finally, Jones takes Sunderland to beat Chelsea at 5/2 with Sky Bet. He notes that since promotion Sunderland have conceded just 1.04 goals per game at home and have beaten Newcastle and held Arsenal and Manchester City at the Stadium of Light, as well as beating Chelsea 2-1 on the final day of last season. His score prediction is a 2-1 Sunderland win.
