Trump after midterms — Andy Burnham’s first public remarks following the American midterm elections were brief but telling. The prime minister noted that President Trump had accepted the results—a statement that once would have been unremarkable but now carries weight. Burnham is still in the early stages of building a relationship with Trump, having spoken by phone a few times and met him once, at the United Nations in New York in September. That relationship now unfolds against a very different political backdrop than the one facing his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, who also sought to establish ties with Trump.
A President Weakened at Home
The midterms have recast Trump’s standing. No longer is his return to power the extraordinary comeback story it once seemed. Instead, he is a midterm president whose party appears to have been punished by voters—largely, it seems, over the consequences of a foreign war he had originally promised to avoid. The war with Iran has become a central factor in American political life, and its ripple effects are being felt far beyond Washington.
For the UK government, the public response has been anchored in the domestic consequences of that conflict: the cost of living. Burnham framed the moment as an opportunity for global unity around the issue that affects households most directly. He argued that easing cost-of-living pressures at home depends on resolving the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine started by Russia.
Energy Prices and the Strait of Hormuz
Within government, the Iran war and its impact on energy prices are widely regarded as the single biggest contributor to the rising cost of living, among many other factors. That assessment places the UK alongside many of America’s allies—and in alignment with many Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, who point to petrol station prices when explaining the election outcome.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband addressed the issue before the US votes were counted, speaking on BBC Newscast. Asked whether he feared a domestically humiliated Trump might become more belligerent abroad, Miliband did not answer directly. Instead, he stressed that the government’s biggest responsibility is the cost-of-living situation at home, and that the conflict is a major driver of it. He noted that the Strait of Hormuz is not exactly closed but not properly open or free-flowing, and that this is hitting families in the UK. Miliband said a diplomatic way out of the conflict is needed and that the government is working on it—a matter he discussed with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the G20 in Atlanta last week.
The Central Question for Allies
The key uncertainty for the British government and many others is whether defeat at home will make Trump more aggressive abroad—or whether America’s traditional allies, including the UK, the European Union, Canada and Australia, will feel emboldened to work with his domestic political opponents to challenge and restrain a weakened president. The answers will shape international affairs for the next couple of years.
